Story Lines

[DAConley]

2 1/2 weeks out from Raceday, and I don't see any??? / much talk on the site regarding the storylines this year. No trash talk, no grudge match requests. What is Sweepstakes up to from an administrative perspective. Hoping to make it on Thursday, see you on Friday. Looking to stir things up a bit with my 25th cohorts....Ray / Terrence - looking at you guys.

[shafeeq]

SDC didn't dominate everyone last year, and that resulted in a slower but more competetive field. Was that a one-off, or are we in an "anyone could win" world now?

Did CIA have a one-off success, or can they stay on the podium even after graduating a bunch of seniors? And after always being the underdog, can they handle the pressure of defending?

Is Spirit back? They've been out with a lot of buggies and people, and at least their A buggy/driver looks quicker & more stable than in recent years.

What's up with SigEp? Did last year's "so close yet so far away" finish destroy their motivation? They don't seem to be at the pace I'd expect with 2 weeks to go.

What's up with the new buggies? SDC brought one out in the fall, but Havoc hasn't knocked off Malice. CIA had a clear progression over the last 3 years, but then they go and do something different, and it is nowhere near the B team yet. Though there may be driver fit/experience/qualification constraints at those teams. Fringe has 3 buggies in un-Fringelike states of primer & incomplete fairings, so I can't tell which if any are new.

[shafeeq]

Looks like we have some heats with carnage potential:

Women's 2: Fringe B vs Spirit B. In a battle of B teams, anything can happen, and SigNu A gets a front-row seat.

Women's 6: CIA A vs Fish A. This could be closer than a finals heat. CIA needs a repeat performance out of their hill 2 because the Fish have a significant drag advantage in the first half of the freeroll...

Women's 7: SAE A vs PhiDelt A. Fringe A walks away with this heat, but hope the cameras give some attention to the battle behind them.

Men's 4: SigEp B vs Fringe B. Dunno who is first over the hill, but Fringe is going to be the first to Hill 3.

Men's 6: SDC B vs Fish A. Does SDC have enough depth to keep it close on 1? Hill 2's and freeroll are well matched between them.

Men's 8: Fringe A vs CIA B. Might be exciting on 1, but Fringe's 2 pulls them away into the freeroll.

Every year, one of the contenders misses the handle, fails drops, or crashes out. Who's it going to be this year?

[buggypusher]

Looks like we have some heats with carnage potential:

Women's 2: Fringe B vs Spirit B. In a battle of B teams, anything can happen, and SigNu A gets a front-row seat.

This will be interesting, Fringe graduated an alarmingly high number of women's pushers last year, and Spirit is looking noticeably faster than recent years on the freeroll. I suppose if SigNu brings out the wheel magic the carnage could get even worse.

Women's 6: CIA A vs Fish A. This could be closer than a finals heat. CIA needs a repeat performance out of their hill 2 because the Fish have a significant drag advantage in the first half of the freeroll...

Fish A has the queen of the hill from last year (and it wasn't particularly close) and if we assume RD16 and Equinox roll at similar speeds I don't see CIA catching up until the back hills (or chute with a bad turn).

Women's 7: SAE A vs PhiDelt A. Fringe A walks away with this heat, but hope the cameras give some attention to the battle behind them.

I don't know who will make it over the hill first between the two, but PhiDelt has got some new wheels....

Men's 4: SigEp B vs Fringe B. Dunno who is first over the hill, but Fringe is going to be the first to Hill 3.

Given that SigEp couldn't field a C or D team as they have in years past, and Fringe is looking its deepest since 2012, I'm inclined to say Fringe B will beat them over the hill too.

Men's 6: SDC B vs Fish A. Does SDC have enough depth to keep it close on 1? Hill 2's and freeroll are well matched between them.

Fish A has the king of the hill from last year with about a 16 second flat hill 1 (the official king of the hill trap times are dreadfully incorrect, but he was still easily the fastest). Fish A also has the best hill 2 pusher from last year. There's no chance SDC B can keep up on the front hills.

Men's 8: Fringe A vs CIA B. Might be exciting on 1, but Fringe's 2 pulls them away into the freeroll.

I don't know who either of their hill 1s are, but I doubt CIA B can make it into the freeroll before Fringe A.

[shafeeq]

Women's 6: CIA A vs Fish A. This could be closer than a finals heat. CIA needs a repeat performance out of their hill 2 because the Fish have a significant drag advantage in the first half of the freeroll...

Fish A has the queen of the hill from last year (and it wasn't particularly close) and if we assume RD16 and Equinox roll at similar speeds I don't see CIA catching up until the back hills (or chute with a bad turn).

I agree that PiKA had by far the best hill1 last year, but ... paired with the worst hill2, so the teams were dead even at the crosswalk. CIA's hill 1 graduated, so it's not a straight rematch. If it's Fish first, CIA doesn't reel them in them until 3-4. If its CIA first, the Fish might pass between the transitions only to get caught after the turn. The only thing that makes this heat remotely sane is that both teams know they'll comfortably make finals as long as they don't screw up. Like taking each other out in prelims and getting DQ'd or breaking a buggy in the process. There's no Fish B and CIA B isn't a lock on finals without help.

If Sweepstakes felt the need to break up Men's heat 1, I don't see why they left this one alone - simply swapping Fish A and Spirit C from the previous heat would've spaced them out more. Fish's "new team" seeding works out to their benefit, since PiKA A, SDC B & CIA A would've seeded into separate heats.

[Pope on a Rope]

The only thing that makes this heat remotely sane is that both teams know they'll comfortably make finals as long as they don't screw up.

Easier said than done. I expect contact and 2 re-rolls out of this.

[the cook]

CIA won't reel in anything on 3-4 if they suffer the same putrid pickup that cost them the race last year

[TommyK]

Men's 4: SigEp B vs Fringe B. Dunno who is first over the hill, but Fringe is going to be the first to Hill 3.

Prescient

[shafeeq]

Does anyone have hill split times from prelims? I'm a little suspicious of of the video, but it looks to me like an all-star team from yesterday would've been very close to 2:00. I don't recall if that was also the case in past record years.

[shafeeq]

Women's 6: CIA A vs Fish A. This could be closer than a finals heat. CIA needs a repeat performance out of their hill 2 because the Fish have a significant drag advantage in the first half of the freeroll...

Fish A has the queen of the hill from last year (and it wasn't particularly close) and if we assume RD16 and Equinox roll at similar speeds I don't see CIA catching up until the back hills (or chute with a bad turn).

This matchup was so nerve-wracking that we had to have it twice!? SDC gets queen of the hill, but these two can't have been far behind. What's crazier is that CIA's 1-2 are faster over the hill than SDC's near-record A team in the next heat. SDC's _entire_ 5 second lead comes between the stairs and the 4-5 exchange.

The final result looks like the SDC machine has returned to dominating form only to be derailed by an unfortunate error, and CIA gets a lucky repeat. But their 2:31 would've been the fastest women's 2nd place ever, and about the 6th fastest women's time in history, so win or lose, they've done an impressive job against much tougher competition than 2015. It seems like there's 10-12 elite women in the field, and SDC has 4, CIA 3, and Spirit, Fringe, PiKA have 1 or 2 each. Under this weekend's conditions, whoever collects 5 and puts them behind a decent buggy breaks the record.