Carnival Expectations

[TommyK]

Basil finally graduated right? No more Trent on 1 for SDC ya? Can anyone crack 2:05 this year? Or are we headed back to mediocre 2:07s ?

[swiftsam]

I posed a similar question in the fall in this thread, and Bordick suggested that the over/under be set at 2:06.2. It looks like we had two hypothetical bets for the under and two for the over, although one of the unders was Carl and I'm not sure he can be trusted.

My money is on the over. I'm thinking we'll see sub 2:07 again, but not much better than that. It took some crazy aligning of the stars to see those times last year, there's no way it will all fall into place again right away.

Then again, historically the 88, 89, 90 streak would suggest the opposite.

[abordick]

Sam, Excellent data based assumptions. If you look to the causes of that trend and try to find parallels to today, I think we may find differences. I have my own theories as to why 2008 was so nice to SDC/Pika and they point away from a trend.

[TommyK]

What was the Spirit push team continuity like from 88-90?

I think SDC demonstrated the value of good transition training with their improvement from '07 to '08, which was mostly the same team? The disaster of their 1-2 in '07 on both days was indicative of not exercizing the 7 P's. proper prior practice prevents piss poor performance, which they remedied quite well last year.

Fresh teams have to overcome the learning curve and there will be a lot of new faces this year. Between an expected talent drop of 1-2 seconds and less experience I think the winning time could be as slow as a high 2:07. pitiful ...

Anyone heard the theory about the second year after a fresh paving being faster than the first? i.e. less residual oil and asphalt proscessing agents and a year of tires to smooth it out? potholes and cracks not bad enough yet and dirt and soil still low?

[swiftsam]

It looks like our venerable history db only has the pushers for Spirit's '88 A team

If anybody knows who was on the teams before or after, I'll update the history and we can start answering the question of whether consistent push teams was part of the formula for that streak of near-record times.

[Carl Nott]

If anybody knows who was on the teams before or after, I'll update the history and we can start answering the question of whether consistent push teams was part of the formula for that streak of near-record times.

How about you update the data we've already posted to the History? No offense, but dude...

[swiftsam]

How about you update the data we've already posted to the History? No offense, but dude...

Fair enough, fair enough, you got me there. unfortunately, we haven't quite got the back end stuff set up to import new data very gracefully so it's kind of a bitch to do. but you're right, there's stuff in the queue that's 3 months old, so it's probably time to sit down and make it happen.

[Carl Nott]

Aye, not trying to be a dick about a volunteer's efforts (which have been amazing so far), don't get me wrong. But it's hard to navigate team details, especially pushers.

Then again I've been using McMaster-Carr's online catalog a lot lately so my standards for data accessibility may be slightly high.

[Carl Nott]

Teaser:

1992 Men's A
Buggy: Shaka Zulu
Driver: Mimi Dameron
Hill 1: Chris Cyrus / Joe Harrelson Day 2
Hill 2: Jay Tindal / John Peck Day 2
Hill 3: Brent Thomas
Hill 4: Phil Bronner
Hill 5: Chad Darby
Time: 2:07:0, 2:07.37: 1st Place

[the cook]

Re: pavement getting faster with time

from racing skateboards downhill I can confirm that this is true. Particularly in the lanes where cars roll over the pavement and make it smoother.

The asphalt dries out a bit and loses lighter oils and thus gets harder - making it faster.

The type of asphalt on the buggy course is pretty hard with lots of aggregate though and won't change as much as the gooey black stuff.

Needless to say the hopelessly cracked stuff on the front hills and chute will NOT be getting faster