Predictions 2012

[Jmohin]

Since no one has done it yet: How about a predictions 2012 thread!

Who will win?
Top 5?
Fastest freeroll?
Fastest backhills?
New teams to be scared of?
"Dark Horse" veteran teams?
Achilles' heels for top teams?

[blue]

speaking of predictions: I've got a crap memory. When abouts is compubookie supposed to do their thing?

[shafeeq]

It's usually the last Tartan before Carnival, so the 16th, I'd think.

[DeVos]

Top 5
Fringe A
SDC A
PiKA A
SDC B
SigEp A

PiKA has it's hands full just trying to get back into practice after a semester off, and while Raptor seems to be rolling quite well, I don't think their push team will have the depth or coordination needed. I haven't seen much in the way of pusher rosters so this is a bit of a toss up but SDC seems a little less dominant than in the past few years. Therefore, I forsee Bonsai again bringing it home for Fringe while NBXII goes to the B or C team slot.

I think SigEp will have a great run but their build philosophy of "git-r-done" may hold them back. Spirit will be in the top ten after most (but probably not all) of their buggies make it through the chute without a spin. CIA will probably make second day but will be in 8-10th place barring any huge screwups by places 1-5. AEPi, SAE, Apex and DeltaForce will all be in the 2:23-2:35 range. Apex and DeltaForce will have enough of a learning curve for Raceday that this finish will be enough for them. SAE will be in roughly the same position with what is essentially a new buggy (Rubicon 2.0) while AEPi has their everpresent pusher handicap. SigNu will be not-so-notably absent after last year's last minute reappearance and then unexplained raceday crash.

I'm relying on what I saw during the streaming coverage and what I can infer from the rolls reports so this may be a bit off base. The real unknown is pushers since they haven't been featured in the report or stream. Who agrees with me/knows better than I do?

[Ben]

You seem pretty accurate there Kevin. I would like to think CIA will do a bit better and guarantee a raceday spot this year rather than have some luck on DQ's. I don't know who will top who in terms of SigEp and PiKA. SigEp has the experience and didn't have the fiasco that happend to Pike at the end of last year so I'm currently leaning to SigEp taking the lead, but it will be close between them.

SDC still has great recruitment as far as I can tell, so I think you're pretty spot on with that. They're depth will be great, but they may just miss the punch to beat out Bonsai.

I haven't gotten out to rolls much recently, so my guess on SigNu is that they'll have a similar though better showing than last year.

In terms of the AEPi, SAE, Apex and DeltaForce crowd. I don't know if they'll all break the 2:35 mark, but that's a matter of semantics.

[Jmohin]

So far, I think everyone has been spot on, with a few exceptions.

SDC and fringe will duke it out for fastest free roll / who recruited more varsity athletes for the win. I think everyone agrees on that.

My two "dark horse" independents to look for:
Spirit looks fast this year, so let's hope they overcame their bad juju last year and go spinless through the chute. Definitely a top-7 team if they avoid accidents.
CIA also looks surprisingly good. If they can get some push talent out they'll be in the mix too, but i don't know if they can break into the top-5.

However, PiKA and SigEp's A-teams will be in the mix for the top 5. They've been neck-and-neck for fastest greek org the last 2 or 3 years, however with a slew of DQ's from both sides. I think I have to give the edge to SigEp this year only because it seems like their pushers are athletic and they haven't had been forced to move houses (which is disastrous for organizing a buggy team). Let's just hope barracuda can hold up for one more year.

I like DeltaForce as my come-from-nowhere team this year. Perun looks good as ever and a second-day showing from them would be a delight!

SigNu: Will they roll? I don't know enough right now to make that call.

In total:

1/2: Fringe A
1/2: SDC A
3: SDC B
4: SigEp A
5/6: PiKA A
5/6: Fringe B
7: Spirit A
8: CIA A
9: SDC C
10: PiKA B

[Ben]

Now the real hard question, what buggy will win design comp?!

Will Fringe take it back and make CIA just a blip in their streak of wins? Are more orgs going to fill out the top three? Will the new judges make different decisions based on their background? Will the prize be worth extra effort?

I'm really not sure what the new judges will say, what their focus might be, or what kinds of different questions they might be asking compared to the last few years that professors and staff have been repeat judges. It'll be fun to see what industry people think about the stuff that we all know and love.

My bet's on Ascension taking it all again (assuming she retains her A-team position), but I might be just slightly biased.

I have no idea what might happen to the new orgs if they compete in design comp.

Finals Pool of 6:
Ascension
Bissa
Bonsai
Mamba
Orca
Peregrine

Top three:
1. Ascension
2. Bonsai
3. Bissa

There are probably other orgs and buggies that I may have forgotten about, but it's much harder to tell who's going to enter and what buggies are going to which teams.

[trophymursky]

I will decline to comment about fringe vs sdc because I am inherently biased in that issue, but here are a few of my other predictions.

Pika A will beat SigEp A.

If SigNu A qualifies, they have a good shot to make day 2 (they had a 55 at the stop sign last year pre-spin and have yet to spin with their guy driver). They are my dark horse.

CIA will need some help (better teams getting a dq) in order to make day 2. (Please prove me wrong)

[shafeeq]

I agree with the top 7.

8. SDC C
9. PiKA B
10. SigEp B
SN A
Fringe C
CIA A
AEPi A

SigNu was rolling impressively this weekend for not having been out much. If they have an push team better than 5 random guys I think they make finals without help. Spirit seems to have things under control now, Fringe doesn't make many mistakes, maybe SDC spins one, maybe PiKA's a little rusty, maybe someone misses a pushbar, and lets CIA or AEPi In.

As for design, I think Fringe takes 1&2 and CIA or SigEp 3. I'd feel better about that if Mamba didn't have so many bolts sticking out the bottom...

[SigNuSi]

Zoo is qualified for this year and ready to roll - despite the early year shenanigans they've got it together for this year.

That being said, my money is still on SDC - I'd being willing to say they'll have -3 on everyone on truck and that will only grow larger on raceday. They have the ability to gamble the chute turn a bit more than Fringe does. It's going to be a shootout between Fringe and SDC (it seems like this is what its now come to every year...).

Can anyone tell me what PIKA A is rolling? Cause if it's nemesis (or its clone) I question their ability to keep up with the independents...that buggy just seems to have bad luck. I say they wind up behind SigEp A, the SigEp guys have had it together the past couple of years and did not have to go through the mess that the PIKA guys did.

Agree with mursky that CIA and AEPi will need help to get into Day 2. Despite the large gains these orgs have made they seem to always be missing that edge that Day 2 orgs have (no offense, nicest people I ever met were from CIA and AEPi).

Dark horse is Spirit. I don't know who is in the truck for them this year, but if they can keep the wheels on the buggy and get her through the chute, the backhills will make up for the downhill. I'd say its going to take a lot to get them into the top 3, but anything is possible.