Predictions 2012

[TommyK]

That being said, my money is still on SDC ... They have the ability to gamble the chute turn a bit more than Fringe does.

How do you figure that? Hasn't SDC spun quite a few times this year and it could be argued the wobble in the chute from their A-team last year likely cost them the race?

[penguin]

you could argue a lot of things.
full carnival troll project in the works.
-bird

[the cook]

Oddly I agree with Tommy that the SDC bobble in the chute cost them the race last year. I also think their back hills were not as quick, hill 5 looked out of sorts last year.

Here is the way I see it, without any push practice knowledge

You have three top-tier push teams. Fringe, SDC, SigEp. Two second-tier push teams - PiKa, Spirit.

If SigEp had a fringe roll last year they would have gone 205.5 Yes their tires blew up a couple years ago but why so much slower in the roll last year and so far this year I do not know. You can't make up 5 seconds. They'll be 2:09 unless they break out some wheels this weekend.

SDC was ahead at the chute flag last year, but was a bit off of 2010 push pace on the back hills. The chute bobble added 1 to 2 seconds to their time. Run a clean turn and they are right in it. Spin and we'd all say it was about time - eventually you will pay the standard trike price 2:05 clean, 2:07 slide, or spin

Fringe has the best chance of coming clean through the chute. They haven't consistently put down 2.05 range times like SDC though. Anywhere from 2:05 to 2:08 depending on the men

PiKa - a real wildcard. I don't think the fat missile is as fast as the recent buggies, bigger has to take a toll. 2:11 unless they show improved downhill speed.

The rest I don't really care much. Zoo is rolling OK but if they rolled something slim and had a man push they'd be on top of Fringe's roll times instead of 5 seconds back. After 15 years of rolling a fat buggy then building even fatter, that makes little sense to me. 2:22 for Zoo as mass going down the hill goes up a lot less well.

What has me puzzled is how teams can have decent known wheels and be 10 and even 15 seconds slower than others on the same wheels. That blows my mind.

[trophymursky]

What has me puzzled is how teams can have decent known wheels and be 10 and even 15 seconds slower than others on the same wheels. That blows my mind.

Mechanics spend a lot of time building the buggies for a reason.

[SigNuSi]

That being said, my money is still on SDC ... They have the ability to gamble the chute turn a bit more than Fringe does.

How do you figure that? Hasn't SDC spun quite a few times this year and it could be argued the wobble in the chute from their A-team last year likely cost them the race?

I can't say for the spins in the chute this year - haven't managed to make a freeroll session. However, despite last years wobble, SDC kept the line clean in '09 and '08 (they also would have won '10 in my opinion). They pushed everything to the edge those years - winning 2 out of 3 basically riding the edges of the wheels - that's what i would call a reasonable gamble in the chute. Fringe doesn't have that ability, the mean greens don't have enough bounce in 'em.

[galexkeene]

Since I've been constantly checking all day my time (while you lucky assholes that get to go to Raceday sleep) I can report that Compubookie is now live on the Tartan: http://thetartan.org/2012/4/16/sports/compubookie2012

The short version:

Men’s:
SDC A; SDC B; Fringe A; PiKA A; SPIRIT A; Sig Ep A; SDC C; Fringe B; PiKA B; Sig Nu A
Women’s:
SDC A; Fringe A; SPIRIT A; SDC B; Sig Ep A; PiKA A

[Ben]

I think things might be a bit more spread out this year than what compubookie thinks. SDC has had some great depth, but I don't know if they've been able to keep it through all their teams this year. I have a feeling that the 7th place CIA girls from last year have a much better showing this year, so I wouldn't count them out of potential top 6.

Also, tent position totally correlates to more things you can do instead of walking back and forth.

[trophymursky]

All I will say is that I am VERY surprised that they have sdc b over fringe a.

[McCue]

It is unbelievable how accurate the below is.

Here is the way I see it, without any push practice knowledge

You have three top-tier push teams. Fringe, SDC, SigEp. Two second-tier push teams - PiKa, Spirit.

If SigEp had a fringe roll last year they would have gone 205.5 Yes their tires blew up a couple years ago but why so much slower in the roll last year and so far this year I do not know. You can't make up 5 seconds. They'll be 2:09 unless they break out some wheels this weekend.

SDC was ahead at the chute flag last year, but was a bit off of 2010 push pace on the back hills. The chute bobble added 1 to 2 seconds to their time. Run a clean turn and they are right in it. Spin and we'd all say it was about time - eventually you will pay the standard trike price 2:05 clean, 2:07 slide, or spin

Fringe has the best chance of coming clean through the chute. They haven't consistently put down 2.05 range times like SDC though. Anywhere from 2:05 to 2:08 depending on the men

PiKa - a real wildcard. I don't think the fat missile is as fast as the recent buggies, bigger has to take a toll. 2:11 unless they show improved downhill speed.

The rest I don't really care much. Zoo is rolling OK but if they rolled something slim and had a man push they'd be on top of Fringe's roll times instead of 5 seconds back. After 15 years of rolling a fat buggy then building even fatter, that makes little sense to me. 2:22 for Zoo as mass going down the hill goes up a lot less well.

What has me puzzled is how teams can have decent known wheels and be 10 and even 15 seconds slower than others on the same wheels. That blows my mind.

[Jmohin]

It is unbelievable how accurate the below is.

the cook knows his stuff. It IS really freaky how good that was.

Notes:
I'm still waiting on that SDC forward trike "penalty", they must be doing something right with prep to keep that traction. A bit of slide is the worst that they ever seem to get. Fringe's free roll is better but I can't tell if they went conservative on their prep or were saving something for day 2 this year.

SigEp might be doing some good things in the truck but as someone who knows I think the hard limit on barracuda as a buggy might be around 2:06-2:07, so any misstep and you're back at 2:09-2:10. It's not built well enough to go much faster. They will need a better build to take advantage of their beastly push teams.

PiKA's fat missile isn't SO slow, even if their push team isn't top-3. They just need to wait until the roads get paved for those small wheels, and they'll be dangerous again.

Spirit does not have a second-tier push team. I think they just push one of the longer hill 3's of any team on the course, sadly. I can't explain that.

The difference in teams on the same wheels comes down to 3 things in my mind:
Hill 2 Push (the single most underrated factor for a free roll)
Steering alignment and buggy construction
Wheel Prep

I think the teams that roll on the same wheels but are slow (like AEPi) suffer from these factors. Hill 2 push is such a killer. Furthermore, if the steering has some play in it, kiss your advantage goodbye.
That's the best I can do to explain that.